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On-line Education 1:
Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting - 1-Day Workshop
On-line Education 2:
Collaborative Planning, POS Based & New Product Forecasting - 1-Day Workshop
On-line Education 3:
Sales & Operations Planning: What, Why, How, Who, When
On-line Education 4:
An Introduction to Statistical Forecasting - 1-Day Hands-On Workshop
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On-line Education 1:
Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting - 1-Day Workshop
September 14, 2010 | 10:00am - 4:00pm EST (New York)
>>TO REGISTER, $299
>>TO REGISTER – FULL COURSE - (4 DAYS), $999
Presented by:
Mark Lawless, Senior Consultant
IBF
Section 1: Fundamentals of of Demand Planning.
Demand Planning & Forecasting is both an art and a science. It requires informed judgment, business expertise, and technical skills. Done well, it can provide a true competitive edge and increased sales, while managing inventory and maintaining best-in-class customer service. Forecasting depends on both a structured process and modeling. Both are equally important. In this workshop, we will describe not only the fundamentals of forecasting and planning, but also why the forecasting process is important and what role it plays in demand planning.
Key Learnings:
- What you need to know about demand planning & forecasting
- Why we need forecasts and what role do they play in the supply chain
- How to effectively create and launch an effective demand planning process
- The ingredients of an effective forecasting process why we need it
- Why is it important to have a consensus forecasting process in place
- Why is it important to have a single number forecast and plan
- What contributes to bull whip effect and how to avoid it
- Why unconstrained demand is important in demand planning
Section 2: Demand Planning & Demand Management.
Both demand management and demand planning call for managing the demand, that is, what to do if demand is greater than supply or if supply is greater than demand? It’s in the best of interest of a company to balance supply with demand. This requires demand sensing (reading and interpreting the signals of the market) and demand shaping (shaping the demand to optimize sales and profit). For effective demand planning, we have to set some business rules, that is, how to deal with different issues that might arise. For example, how to deal with products that are highly volatile, how to allocate products among different customers when there is a shortage, what criteria to use for pruning products, and so on. Also, we need to regularly review such things as forecast performance, customer service, and inventory levels, which will also be addressed in this workshop.
Key Learnings:
- How to sense and shape the demand
- What business rules need to be established for effective demand planning
- What are the success factors and impediments to demand planning
- How to deal with products that are highly volatile
- What demand planners should review every month and why
- How to interface demand planning to the S&OP Process
- How to interface the S&OP to New Product planning and Long-Term Business Plans
On-line Education 2
Collaborative Planning, POS Based & New Product Forecasting - 1-Day Workshop
September 16, 2010 | 10:00am - 4:00pm EST (New York)
>>TO REGISTER, $299
>>TO REGISTER – FULL COURSE - (4 DAYS), $999
Presented by:
Mark Lawless, Senior Consultant
IBF
Section 1: Collaborative Planning and Forecasting.
The key to success in demand planning is collaboration both within and outside the enterprise because no one --individual and/or function-- has all the information needed to make a good forecast and plan. This is why over the last two decades or so the forecasting process has evolved within the enterprise from a silo to consensus process to Sales and Operation Planning (S&OP) and outside the enterprise to Collaborative, Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR). In this workshop, we will discuss why collaboration is needed, and what are the key ingredients of successful collaborative processes? We will also describe steps to be followed for implementing a successful collaborative process. Collaborative Planning, particularly CPFR has a unique set of standards and requirements that are necessary for building a sustainable partnership between you and your customer.
Key Learnings:
- Why collaboration is important both within and outside the organization
- What are the benefits of CPFR
- What are the ingredients of a successful collaborative process
- How to implement a CPFR process using VICS standards and guidelines
- How companies have benefited by collaborating with their customers
Section 2: Point-of Sales (POS) Data.
Here we will describe how to leverage POS data in demand planning for best results. Point of Sales data (POS) obtained either directly from a customer and/or from a third party vendor such as AC Nielsen and Information Resources, Inc. improve forecasts and provides a clear picture of the ever changing consumer behavior.
Key Learnings:
- In what way POS data differs from syndicated data
- What are the benefits of using POS data in demand planning
- What is the Bull-whip effect and how does POS data eliminate it
- How to use POS data in demand planning
- Why POS data gives better forecasts than shipping and demand data
- What are the challenges in using POS data
Section 3: New Product Forecasting.
A significant portion of income comes from new product launches. But new product forecasting and planning has a unique set of conditions and circumstances, which differentiates it from other forms of forecasting and planning. In this workshop, the solutions to these conditions and combining a variety of methodologies will be explored to get better outcomes in your new product planning efforts. Join the IBF in exploring these important topics for your company at this special online workshop.
Key Learnings:
- What role new products play in business
- How to structure a new product forecasting process
- What are the different models of new product forecasting and how they work
- What is the role of market research in new product forecasting
- Success factors and failure factors in new product launches
On-line Education 3:
Sales & Operations Planning: What, Why, How, Who, When
September 21, 2010 | 10:00am - 3:00pm EST (New York)
>>TO REGISTER, $299
>>TO REGISTER – FULL COURSE - (4 DAYS), $999
Presented by:
John Boyer, President
J.E. Boyer Company, Inc.
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) is a proven top management method for making timely proactive resourcing decisions for labor, fixed cost, capital, and key materials based on demand and supply balancing. Many manufacturers have discovered the power of this practice and are successfully applying it to lower cost, provide the best service, and minimize investment. This on-line workshop explains what it is, why it is important, the eight process steps that describe how it is done, who participates in each step, and when all activities occur.
This workshop will also help engage your top management team by providing very specific and pragmatic S&OP steps. It will show how they can formalize and communicate demand and supply issues that are already foremost in their minds thus making S&OP a natural fit with their management priorities.
Section 1: S&OP Overview (What, Why) – 1 hour:
This section provides a basic overview of the S&OP process, explains why it is important, and fundamental process building blocks.
Section 2: The Eight Process Steps (How, Who, When) – 2 hours:
- This section explains the eight process steps, who is involved in each step, and when they should occur.
- Some detail regarding production planning, finished goods inventory management, and linking to the ERP system will be covered.
Section 3: Implementation – 1 hour:
- This section shows how a typical step-wise sequence of activities results in an effective S&OP process design and ongoing conduct.
- The four specific keys to success will be covered.
This on-line session will help companies that are just beginning the S&OP process, and will also help companies that are current S&OP practitioners. The beginners will gain excellent knowledge on how to go about the project, and the practitioners will discover ideas that will help improve their process. Unlike traditional webinars, this workshop will allow ample time for Questions & Answers during each segment. This will enable you to get answers to specific questions you may have – and to put this information to work in your company right away.
Key Learnings:
- What S&OP is and why it is important to the business.
- Who is supposed to do what by when, and how to do it.
- Proven implementation steps and keys to success.
On-line Education 4
An Introduction to Statistical Forecasting - 1-Day Hands-On Workshop
September 28, 2010 | 10:00am - 4:00pm EST (New York)
>>TO REGISTER, $299
>>TO REGISTER – FULL COURSE - (4 DAYS), $999
Presented by:
Fred Andres, President
PhredTek, Inc.
Section 1: The Requisites of an Effective Forecasting Process, Types of Models & Data Cleansing.
Today, most planning in business routinely begins with a forecast. It makes little difference whether you are an accountant, a marketer, a human resource manager, financial analyst, or a demand planner you will have to forecast something sooner or later. The tools most often used in these forecasts are statistical forecasting tools. This online workshop is designed to lead you through most of the helpful statistical forecasting tools.
This first section of the workshop presents an overview of what we will cover. The examples that we will use throughout the day are, for the most part, based on actual historical data, much like that you will encounter in your own forecasting efforts. Understanding and managing this data effectively is our first order of business.
Key Topicss:
- Types of forecasting methods
a) Extrapolative (time series) methods
b) Explanatory (cause and effect) methods
c) Judgmental methods
- Forecasting publications
- Forecasting conferences
- Forecasting software
- Data Cleansing/ Data Management – Getting Your Data Ready For Demand Forecasting
a) Data outliers
b) Missing data
c) Structural change in the data
d) Unit of measure mismatches
e) Seasonal and trend effects
Section 2: Introduction to the Naïve Model, Accuracy Measures, and Moving Averages (using Microsoft Excel).
There are a number of forecasting models to choose from. However, how does one know which one to choose and how to improve if the performance of different models are not compared? In this section you will learn how to measure forecast performance, and what contributes to the errors in your forecast models. In addition, you will learn how to prepare forecasts using a Moving Average Model.
Key Topicss:
- Naïve Model
- Accuracy Measures – How to Compare the Forecasts of Competing Models
a) Seven important statistical measures of forecast accuracy; including MAD, MAPE, WMAPE and RMSE
b) Within-sample vs. out-of-sample tests
c) Holdouts
- Moving Averages
- Why smoothing is so widely applied
- Preparing base-line forecasts
Section 3: Exponential Smoothing and New Product Forecasting Statistical Models.
(using Microsoft Excel and other commercial software)
Exponential Smoothing Models are among the most widely used methods of extrapolative forecasting. The reason is simple: they are effective and accurate models for a wide variety of data. Simple exponential smoothing can be done in native Microsoft Excel; more sophisticated versions of smoothing will require commercial software. Furthermore, a significant portion of revenue comes from new product launches? But, how to forecast the demand for products and services with little or no history? You will learn in this session:
Key Topicss:
- The family of smoothing models
- Exponential weighting the data Modes of implementation: manual, standard and automatic
- Choosing a particular smoothing model
- Simple, Holt and Winters' smoothing models (level, trend, and seasonality)
- Understanding and explaining exponential smoothing forecasts
- Damped and exponential trends
- Automatic model selection
- Dealing with intermittent data series - Croston's approach
- Dealing with different numbers of business days per month
- Using Event Models (Promotions are an important “event”)
- Strengths and weaknesses of exponential smoothing
- Preparing base-line forecasts
- New Product Statistical Forecasting Models
a) Logistics Model
b) Gompertz Model
c) Bass Model
Lunch and Hands-On Practice (offline)
Section 4: Time Series Decomposition (using commercial software)
This model is the second most used in forecasting and illustrates the basic characteristics of time series forecasting: trend, seasonality, cyclicality, and noise. Time Series Decomposition is not a model that is available in Microsoft Excel; we will demonstrate it by using commercial software and show its usefulness. This model is especially useful for forecasts made in periods when the economy heads toward recession, or when the economy begins to come out of a recession.
Key Topicss:
- The principle of decomposition
- Assessing trends
- Seasonal indexes and seasonal adjustment
- Leading indicators of the business cycle (and where to find them)
- Preparing base-line forecasts
- What are the ingredients of a good Forecast
Section 5:
Introduction to Regression (using Microsoft Excel)
Regression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables. It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values is needed. It is important for event modeling and/or where promotional activities have a great influence on the demand. For example: What type of lift in sales can I expect if we increase our advertising budget by $1M? How does a decrease in product price affect our sales? In this workshop we will introduce you to the regression model. Regression may be implemented in native Excel with some limitations on the diagnostic statistics produced.
Key Topicss:
- Classical regression model
- Simple regression
- Multiple regression
- Interpreting results (how not to make mistakes with regression)
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